Monday, October 15, 2007

Perspectives That Differ

It is Blog Action Day 2007. I had reported about this initiative some weeks ago. Today, thousands of blogs will write a posting related to the environment. The official figure of participating blogs is:

Total number of blogs: 15,861
Combined rss reach of blogs: 12,697,713

Quite impressive. Even if at the end maybe only 30-50% of those who registered will actually participate, it is certainly the biggest concerted blog action that has ever been launched. Chapeau!

I thought about the topic I shall refer to, and I came back to the issue of global scenarios. We all know that whatever people write on the environment, they base their judgement on mathematical models. Although some models seem to be more robust than others - they are all models.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who received the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Vice President Al Gore (Congratulations), has once published an interesting research on scenarios. Although the study is six years old, I still believe it has much to tell about how much current future scenarios differ.

Global Futures Scenarios: Range of Possible Futures tells a vivid story of how much our political action is based on subjective descriptions of the world. I often use this text to explain people about the complexity and the unpredictability of the world. Have a look at the following tables. Here, the IPCC investigated how many scenarios were describing different aspects of economy, environment and global society. In their research, they found for example 65 scenarios that were predicting a general rise of the global economy, while 37 (about 35%) predicted a stagnation or even a global economic collaps.

What scenarios do you base your belief system on?

Read more at Global Futures Scenarios: Range of Possible Futures.

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